Free Will is an Illusion

1. Brief critique and context:
The conjecture "Free Will is an Illusion" is a long-standing philosophical and scientific debate. It hinges on whether human decisions are determined by prior states (determinism) or if individuals have genuine choice (free will). This debate involves neuroscience, psychology, and physics. Neuroimaging studies have shown that brain activity often precedes conscious decision-making, suggesting that choices may be determined before we are consciously aware of them. However, the notion of free will also involves complex philosophical questions about agency and responsibility that extend beyond empirical science.

2. Recent research:
Recent advancements in neuroscience, such as studies using real-time brain imaging, continue to support the idea that our decisions are influenced by unconscious brain processes. For example, a study by Soon et al. (2008) demonstrated that brain activity can predict decisions several seconds before they become conscious (https://www.nature.com/articles/nn.2112). Additionally, research into quantum mechanics in the brain remains speculative with no conclusive evidence that quantum processes play a role in neural decision-making (https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpsyg.2015.00290/full).

3. Bayesian likelihood of falsification (with reasoning):
The likelihood of this conjecture being falsified within 5 years is low, around 10-20%. The criteria for falsification are stringent and require breakthroughs in neuroscience and physics that are currently speculative. While ongoing research might refine our understanding of decision-making processes, the deterministic perspective is well-supported by existing empirical evidence. Additionally, the philosophical nature of the free will debate makes empirical falsification challenging, as it intertwines with non-empirical questions about consciousness and agency.