Vertical Farm Carbon

1. **Brief critique and context**: Vertical farming is often promoted for its efficiency in land use and potential for local production, which can reduce transportation emissions. However, it typically requires significant energy inputs, particularly for lighting and climate control, which can result in high carbon intensity. The conjecture challenges the environmental sustainability of vertical farming by suggesting that its carbon footprint cannot be lower than conventional farming when considering the entire lifecycle. This is a critical area of study given the increasing interest in sustainable urban agriculture solutions.

2. **Recent research**: A study by Graamans et al. (2018) explored the energy efficiency of vertical farms and found that innovations in LED technology and renewable energy integration could improve the carbon footprint (https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0921344917303316). More recent work by Barbosa et al. (2022) assessed vertical farming systems powered by renewable energy and highlighted potential reductions in carbon intensity compared to traditional systems under specific conditions (https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0959652622012350). These studies suggest that while current vertical farms may struggle with carbon intensity, advances in technology and energy sourcing could bridge the gap.

3. **Bayesian likelihood of falsification (with reasoning)**: 40%. While current vertical farming systems may not typically achieve lower carbon intensity than open-field production, there is potential for technological advancements and increased use of renewable energy to reduce their carbon footprint. However, achieving this under typical grid mixes remains challenging, as it would require significant shifts in energy sourcing and efficiency improvements. Therefore, while falsification is possible, especially with ongoing advancements, it is not highly probable in the next five years given current trends and energy infrastructure.