Charity Effectiveness

1. Brief critique and context
The conjecture that top charities recommended by GiveWell deliver at least ten times more Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) per dollar than the median global health NGO is ambitious and reflects the organization's focus on data-driven, cost-effective interventions. While GiveWell's methodology is rigorous, it relies heavily on assumptions and estimates that may not fully capture the complexity and variability of real-world interventions. Additionally, the dynamic nature of global health challenges and interventions means that what is optimal today may not remain so as new data and methodologies emerge.

2. Recent research
Recent studies have emphasized the importance of robust cost-effectiveness analysis in global health interventions. For example, a paper by Neumann PJ et al. (2021) in Health Affairs discusses advances in cost-effectiveness analysis in global health, highlighting the complexity of measuring DALYs across different contexts and interventions (https://www.healthaffairs.org/doi/10.1377/hlthaff.2020.01297). Another relevant study by Glassman A et al. (2022) in the Journal of Global Health highlights discrepancies in cost-effectiveness due to varying local factors and data quality (https://www.jogh.org/documents/issue202201/jogh-12-01009.pdf).

3. Bayesian likelihood of falsification (with reasoning)
Bayesian likelihood of falsification: 30%
Reasoning: Given the current evidence and GiveWell's strong methodological framework, the likelihood of the conjecture being falsified within five years is moderate. While it's possible that new, peer-reviewed studies might challenge the tenfold effectiveness ratio, the existing body of research supports GiveWell's general conclusions about its top charities' cost-effectiveness. However, the inherent uncertainties in global health metrics and the potential for methodological improvements suggest a non-negligible chance of reevaluation and recalibration of these effectiveness estimates.