Microgrid Cost Floor

1. Brief critique and context:
The conjecture on the "Microgrid Cost Floor" suggests a potential floor in cost-efficiency for solar photovoltaic plus battery micro-grids in equatorial Africa, implying that they cannot achieve a levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) below $0.15 USD/kWh without diesel backup. This is likely due to challenges such as high initial investment, maintenance costs, and variability in solar irradiance. However, technological advancements and decreasing costs of solar panels and battery storage could challenge this assumption. Furthermore, the economic viability of microgrids is crucial for energy access in remote areas, making this an important area of study.

2. Recent research:
Recent studies indicate rapid improvements in solar and battery technologies. A report by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) highlights declining costs in solar photovoltaic systems and battery storage:
https://www.irena.org/publications/2020/Jun/Renewable-Power-Costs-in-2019
Additionally, research on microgrid systems in Africa suggests potential for lower costs through improved efficiencies and economies of scale:
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364032119304562

3. Bayesian likelihood of falsification (with reasoning):
40% likelihood of falsification within 5 years.
While current costs may hover around the stated floor, ongoing reductions in technology costs and innovations in microgrid design could enable achieving the cost target without diesel backup. However, challenges such as local economic conditions, infrastructure, and policy support could limit rapid adoption and cost reductions, making immediate falsification less probable but not unlikely.